Policy Based Forecasts

Projections 2005 is the official forecast of the Association of Bay Area Government. Like its most recent predecessor, Projections 2003, this forecast includes a set of policy assumptions that are a departure from our historical practice. Policies and programs are assumed to change in a way that shifts new growth toward areas near transit and existing downtowns. These "smart growth" policies and programs are assumed to have an increasing affect over the thirty year forecast horizon.

The forecast is not a business as usual scenario and it is not just a set of regional goals. Instead, it is a single scenario that contains a certain amount of progress toward the policy goals. Which seems appropriate since the forecast can have practical consequences for funding decisions and land use policies.

The amount of progress toward the goals is contained in the policy assumptions adopted by ABAG's Executive Board, which include:

1. Some changes to the basic forecast. Updated information from the 2000 Census will cause some important changes to the Base Year information. Notably, the slow pace of job recovery in the Bay Area will also cause us to reduce projected employment beginning with a 300-350,000 job reduction in 2005 and reductions in each of the remaining years. Other results may also change in line with a revised job forecast.
   
   
2. Smart Growth policies show results beginning in 2010. Some recently completed survey work indicates the acceptance of smart growth principles in many general and specific plans. Regional and state programs continue to support smart growth through transportation funding. State agencies expect to try and link land use and transportation. However, because of the time needed to obtain incentives, and make investments a reality, changes to land use patterns won't begin to occur until 2010.
   
   
3. Annual housing production increases by 5,000 units between years 2010 and 2020, and by 7,500 units between years 2020 and 2030 are assumed. The development pattern is expected to reflect the "network of neighborhoods" concept. Some increase in the number of jobs will occur. However change is expected to occur from a redistribution of public funds and changes to policies at various levels of government.
   
   
4. The Projections include a comparison of the forecast to the Smart Growth Vision numerical goals and describe the mobility analysis of the "jobs/housing balance scenario." This reflects our work with a variety of groups to incorporate Smart Growth Vision numerical goals into this and future iterations of projections and our submission of the "jobs/housing balance scenario" to MTC for mobility analysis.

While there isn't a formal base case forecast we can make some comparisons between the Projections 2005 forecast and the numerical goals that were distilled from Smart Growth Workshops. It should be noted that neither ABAG's Executive Board, nor any of the other regional agencies adopted the numerical goals described here. However they do give us some indication of the forecast's progress to some of the conceptual goals adopted by the Executive Board.